Based on current sentiment, options pricing, and past earnings reactions:
Options-implied move: ~6% swing possible in either direction (≈50/50 odds up vs. down).
Historical record: In the past year, Nvidia dropped in 2 of the last 4 earnings releases (~50%).
Market mood today: Cautious but slightly positive going in, which means downside surprise risk is higher than upside surprise reward.
📊 Estimated probability of a drop today: 55–60%
Small/moderate drop (~2–3%): ~35% likelihood
Larger drop (5%+): ~20–25% likelihood
Flat/Up: ~40–45% combined likelihood
👉 So: The base case is slightly tilted toward a pullback—but the magnitude depends entirely on whether Nvidia only meets expectations (likely a dip) or blows past them again (then we could see another rally).
Jag kör också 50/50 när jag handlar aktier, antingen går dom upp eller så går dom ner.
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